[Austin-ghetto-list] Matters arising; WE'RE AT WAR!!!!!

[Roger Baker]

The roots of the Islamic fundamentalist attacks: 

Now Bush has declared us to be at war with terrorists and the 
nations that support them (but could this include Saudi Arabia as 
one of the few countries that supports the Afgan TELIBAN which supports 
Osama bin Laden, who is a Saudi). Bush is taking advantage of human 
emotions of outrage to rachet up domestic political repression opposing 
a brutal foreign policy which feeds Arab unity.

What causes a bunch of Arabs living far away to come over here and 
grab attention in such an ugly, uncivilized way? Links like that 
below helps when trying to understand the larger context
of these traumatic events. -- Roger

http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/archive/13-9-19101-0-24-43.html


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[The following is a book review from Scientific American -- which says
much 
the same thing as I've been saying ad nauseum for a long time now. -- Roger]


http://www.sciam.com/2001/1001issue/1001reviews1.html

The End of Oil

Review by PAUL RAEBURN

WILL GAS LINES IN THE COMING DECADE MAKE THOSE OF 1973 LOOK SHORT? 

You have to wonder about the judgment of a man who writes, "As I drive
by those smelly refineries on the New Jersey Turnpike, I want to roll
the windows down and inhale deeply." But for Kenneth S. Deffeyes, that's
the smell of home. The son of a petroleum engineer, he was born in
Oklahoma, "grew up in the oil patch," became a geologist and worked for
Shell Oil before becoming a professor at Princeton University. And he
still knows how to wield a 36-inch-long pipe wrench.

In Hubbert's Peak, Deffeyes writes with good humor about the oil
business, but he
delivers a sobering message: the 100-year petroleum era is nearly over.
Global oil production will peak sometime between 2004 and 2008, and the
world's production of crude oil "will fall, never to rise again." If
Deffeyes is right--and if nothing is done to reduce the increasing
global thirst for oil--energy prices will soar and economies will be
plunged into recession as they desperately search for alternatives.

It's tempting to dismiss Deffeyes as just another of the doomsayers who
have been predicting, almost since oil was discovered, that we are
running out of it. But Deffeyes makes a persuasive case that this time
it's for real. This is an oilman and geologist's assessment of the future,
grounded in cold mathematics. And it's frightening. Deffeyes's
prediction is based on the work of M. King Hubbert, a Shell geologist
who in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early
1970s and then begin to decline. Hubbert was dismissed by many experts
inside and outside the oil industry. Pro-Hubbert and anti-Hubbert
factions arose and persisted until 1970, when U.S. oilproduction peaked
and started its long decline.

The Hubbert method is based on the observation that oil production in
any region follows a bell-shaped curve. Production increases rapidly at
first, as the cheapest and most readily accessible oil is recovered.
Asthe difficulty of extracting the oil increases, it becomes more
expensive and less competitive with other fuels. Production slows,
levels off and begins to fall.

Hubbert demonstrated that total U.S. oil production in 1956 was tracing
the upside of such a curve. To know when the curve would most likely
peak, however, he had to know how much oil remained in the ground.
Underground reserves provide a glimpse of the future: when the rate of
new discoveries does not keep up with the growth of oil production, the
amount of oil remaining underground begins to fall. That's a tip-off
that a decline in production lies ahead.

Deffeyes used a slightly more sophisticated version of the Hubbert
method to make the global calculations. The numbers pointed to 2003 as
the year of peak production, but because estimates of global reserves
are inexact, Deffeyes settled on a range from 2004 to 2008. Three things
could upset Deffeyes's prediction. One would be the discovery of huge
new oil deposits. A second would be the development of drilling
technology that could squeeze more oil from known reserves. And a third
would be a steep rise in oil prices, which would make it profitable to
recover even the most stubbornly buried oil.

In a delightfully readable and informative primer on oil exploration and
drilling, Deffeyes addresses each point. First, the discovery of new oil
reserves is unlikely--petroleum geologists have been nearly everywhere,
and no substantial finds have been made since the 1970s. Second,
billions have already been poured into drilling technology, and it's not
going to get much better. And last, even very high oil prices won't spur
enough new production to delay the inevitable peak.

"This much is certain," he writes. "No initiative put in place starting
today can have a substantial effect on the peak production year. No
Caspian Sea exploration, no drilling in the South China Sea, no SUV
replacements, no renewable energy projects can be brought on at a
sufficient rate to avoid a bidding war for the remaining oil."

The only answer, Deffeyes says, is to move as quickly as possible to
alternative fuels--including natural gas and nuclear power, as well as
solar, wind and geothermal energy. "Running out of energy in the long
run is not the problem," Deffeyes explains. "The bind comes during the
next 10 years: getting over our dependence on crude oil."

The petroleum era is coming to a close. "Fossil fuels are a one-time
gift that lifted us up from subsistence agriculture and eventually
should lead us to a future based on renewable resources," Deffeyes
writes. Those are strong words for a man raised in the oil patch. For
the rest of us, the end of the world's dependence on oil means we need
to make some tough political and economic choices. For Deffeyes, it
means he can't go home again.

Paul Raeburn covers science and energy for Business Week and is the
author of Mars: Uncovering the Secrets of the Red Planet (National
Geographic, 1998).