[W126 Coupe] 560SEC figures & survival rate for Germany

[joe chiappinelli]

Gerry,

Very interesting. To what, do you suppose, is the explanation for the 30%
drop in numbers from 2007 to 2008? Most of the years show a consistent 4-7%
attrition rate. In any case, it looks like a 70% drop in vehicles from the
peak in 1992 to 2010. If you assume an additional 4% attrition for 2011 and
apply this total (74%) to the US market, an estimated 770 1991 models would
still be registered. Now apply my 29% figure for those having less than
100k miles and you arrive at some 223 examples remaining with the potential
to reach collectible status.

Disclaimer: enjoying a quiet Sunday with a Martini and some football on the
tube so my math may be suspect.

J.Chip


On Sun, Nov 27, 2011 at 10:43 AM, Gerry Van Zandt <gerryvz at me.com> wrote:


> Joe,

>

> Some additional information from a third source -- the official quarterly

> magazine of the Mercedes-Benz Interessengemeinschaft (MBIG), which is the

> largest and most authoritative MB club in Germany.

>

> This morning I came across the 560SEC figures for Germany (this is all

> model years of the coupe) that are registered in that country, in the MBIG

> Magazine "Ponton Kurier."  The 2011 figures should be out in the next month

> or two….probably the next quarterly issue of the magazine.  I will update

> them when I receive that issue.

>

> All figures from 2003 to the present are of January 1 of that given year,

> registered cars.

> All figures shown from 1986-2004 are of July 1 of that given year,

> registered cars.

>

> 2010:  1427 cars

> 2009:  1482

> 2008:  1551

> 2007:  2217

> 2006:  2382

> 2005:  2525

> 2004:  2718

> 2003:  2894

> 2002:  3127

> 2001:  3282

> 1998:  3726

> 1996:  4192

> 1994:  4515

> 1992:  4771

> 1990:  4630

> 1986:  444

>

> TOTAL 560SEC PRODUCTION WORLDWIDE, 1986-1991:  28929

>

> GERMAN PRODUCTION:  7882 (** from MBIG sources)

> USA PRODUCTION:  10,625 (** from SL Market Letter sources)

>

> Notice the growth in registered cars between 1990 and 1992.  That pretty

> much confirms my previous point of the Benzworld data being incorrect with

> regard to 84.5% of total 1991 production of SECs going to the US market,

> simply because the registered number of cars increased for the German

> market between those two years by 141 cars.

>

> Let's draw a few conclusions from the data:

>

>

>    - 27.25 percent of all 560SEC production was retained for the German

>    market.  This is addition to the 10,625 cars (36.75 percent of all SEC

>    production) that went to the US market from 1986-1991.  So between the US

>    and German markets, 64 percent of all SEC production went to those two

>    countries.

>    - I have attached a graph that shows this information in a curve.

>     This may be useful information for you as general data to also help

>    extrapolate and refine your own data model for the US cars in estimating

>    the survivor erosion rate and number of survivors as a total percentage of

>    production slated for the country.  You can also find this graph at the

>    following URL: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/10675111/SECGermany.jpg

>

>

> Hope all of this information helps.

>

> Cheers,

> Gerry

>

>

>

> The MB Coupes Website!

> W126 SEC Mailing List

> Postings remain property of MB Coupes, L.L.C.

>

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