[AGL] here's an interesting comment from the New York Daily News

[Michael Eisenstadt]

But here's the thing. Even if we accept the conclusions of those who assert 
that, when we run the numbers, race is not depressing black candidates' 
Election Day performance, lessons learned from non-national contests, where 
black candidates sought to become mayor, governor or senator, are of little 
use this time around.

With all due respect, none of these offices comes close to matching the 
symbolic heft of the presidency.

The President is the man (or woman) we see every day. The one who stands for 
us in meetings with foreign leaders. Who commands the military. Who guides 
us through hard times. In short, he is the repository of the nation's hopes 
and fears. To the nation, he is government personified; to the world, he 
represents the American nation. Since childhood, people generally revere the 
office, if not the officeholder.

There is another factor: undecided voters. As of last week, Pew estimates 
that roughly 8% of the electorate have yet to settle on a candidate.

And as Larry Hugick observed in a 1993 report on contests between candidates 
of different races in the '80s and '90s, the overperformance of white 
candidates may be accounted for by undecided voters, most of whom were 
white. Likewise, once we consider the makeup of current undecided voters, we 
should expect them to side with McCain. They're 80% white, more than half 
have never attended college and more than 50% have seen their 50th birthday.

We have never had a black man run on a presidential ticket before, so 
statistical analyses cannot help us much. It could well be the case that 
when some white Americans, especially those who claim to be indecisive, go 
into the voting booths, they will hesitate to vote for Obama.

Under these circumstances, one should not be shocked to discover that, in a 
few key swing states - if that's what this comes down to - some racists may 
be misrepresenting their intentions to pollsters and reveal their true 
preference for Republican John McCain on Tuesday. As a result, we could be 
surprised. The polls may be wrong. And race may wind up the reason why.

It would be naive to believe that race won't, in some way, affect the 
outcome of this election. The question is whether it'll ultimately cost 
Democrats the contest.

Parker is assistant professor of political science at the University of 
Washington and the author of the forthcoming book "Fighting for Democracy: 
Race, Military Service, and Insurgency during Jim Crow."