[AGL] Fw: Do Not Believe the Polls

[Fontaine Maverick]

Well, on the one hand, this is comforting; on the other, it is alarming that so many of the polling firms appear to be corrupt.







        Busted!: Gallup, CBS, USA.Today, etc. Tinkers With Party ID Again
        by Excelscior1
        Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 03:45:38 PM PDT
        The Huffington's Post, Seth Colter Walls, wrote a blockbuster article today, highlighting the fact that most of the major polls that are currently freaking out Obama supporters are the result of questionable Party Id shifts. This is despite the fact that Democrats have a 11million vote advantage (& counting) over the GOP.

        Many of us are familiar with these tricks. But every time a new poll comes out (this time after the GOP convention) we don't examine if we can even get the cross-tabs, and we freak out, or accept the fact that Obama is down, with out question.

        These firms can't stop the madness and their still diddling around on behalf of their media masters.

        http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

          a.. This week's mainstream coverage of the presidential horse-race has been dominated by a series of polls showing the McCain-Palin ticket with its first stable lead over Obama and Biden. Gallup's tracking poll, USA Today and CBS News all show the Republicans with some kind of lead over the Democratic ticket. But, interestingly, all three polls were also conducted using a higher sampling of Republican voters than in July, thus raising a question of methodology.

      Despite the fact that democrats have a 11million vote advantage over republicans, these polls still decided to shift in the favor of Republicans, coming out of their convention, which only gives the perception of McCain really gaining steam.

        Despite a raft of advantages in the electorate for Democrats, in September's first Gallup Tracking poll, an equal number of Republicans and Democrats were surveyed (including "leaners") from Sept. 3-5, compared to a 10-point Democratic identification advantage two weeks ago. That partisan makeup of the polling pool resulted in a 5-point lead for McCain in Sept. 5 tracking poll. Meanwhile, the new CBS poll features a 6-point swing in partisan composition toward Republicans, which plays some role in the poll's two-point lead for McCain. Finally, the latest USA Today poll, which claims a four-point edge for McCain, was arrived at after a 10-point swing in partisan makeup toward GOP respondents.

      You see the major pollsters are still playing their tricks and depressing Obama stalwarts here on Kos.

      Are these party shifts being executed innocently (because registration files aren't loaded) or nefariously, to keep the horse race going?

        Some polling experts say the changing state of party affiliation in the field is slow to be reflected in polls themselves. Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg told the Huffington Post that "when it comes to registration and turnout, the polls often do a very bad job of taking those [factors] into account," because newly registered voters aren't in the voter files used by firms that survey public opinion. "You could make the argument they are under-representing new registrants," she said, which would mean that the Democrats new edge would not be taken into account.

        Monday's USA Today poll had a 48-47 split between Democrats and Republicans surveyed. That represents a nearly 10 point shift in party identification toward Republicans since USA Today's July polling. When asked for comment, USA Today polling editor Jim Norman wrote that "it's possible" that their latest sample includes too many Republicans. Though he added, "it's also possible that we have too many Democrats," because "there's always the chance of an over- or under-representation" in polls.

      The noted Prof. Adam Abramowitz, of Emory University, offers his salient opinions:

        Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz is highly skeptical of the new Gallup, USA Today and CBS polls. About the latter, which showed a statistically insignificant two point lead for McCain, Abramowitz said: "One reason for the dramatic difference between the two recent CBS polls is that the two samples differed fairly dramatically in terms of partisan composition. The first sample was 35.2% Democratic, 26.2 percent Republicans, and 38.6 percent independent. The second sample was 34.9% Democratic, 31.1% Republican, and 34.0% independent. That's a change from a 9 point Democratic advantage to a 3.8 point Democratic advantage. That alone would probably explain about half of the difference in candidate preferences between the two [CBS] polls."

      It seems the GOP and McCain fans are setting themselves up for a fall, because the party ID numbers aren't even close. Even the right-leaning Associated Press knows it:

        Nationwide, there are about 42 million registered Democrats and about 31 million Republicans, according to statistics compiled by The Associated Press.

        The Democrats have posted big gains in many competitive states, including Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Florida. They have also been targeting historically Republican southern states.

        Since 2006, the Democrats have added 167,000 voters in North Carolina, while the Republicans have added 36,000.

      What about McCain's convention and the Palin factor?  Those events certainly have helped, but McCain was just drawing from a previously depressed group, within pre-existant, not additional GOP numbers. I would certainly have more faith, if every time a "new Horse Race Poll" came out, it didn't have the chicanery of noticeable party ID shifts attached to it.  Prof. Abramowitz agrees:

        Despite that, Abramowitz simply doesn't think the overall spike in Republican sampling among all three polling firms is an accurate reflection of the electorate."It's just not likely," he says. Given how important polls can be in the coverage of the race, even a slight assist to McCain during a period in which he is exciting the Republican base could help him solidify a new narrative in the race, regardless of the partisan facts on the ground.

      The moral of the story Kossacks is. Stay strong, volunteer, phone bank, campaign, donate and keep a positive perspective and read through the polls when you can and/or wait for trends, before you get yourself down.

      I'm sure the state polls are being done the same way as well (minus a couple of potential outliers, like that North Carolina, SUSA poll).

      That's why the Obama Campaign (if you notice) never seems to worry about these things, as much as the breathless press and net-root supporters do.

      I'm not saying Obama can't lose. He can. But all the structural advantages, that put the smart money on Obama to begin with (you know bad economy, bad incumbent President, lost jobs, etc.) are still there.

      It will be a fight, with ups and downs. But Obama should win (and it may be in the long run convincingly). So let's take it all in perspective.

      "The Sky Is Falling!"
     
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