[Austin-ghetto-list] War considerations
Roger Baker
rcbaker@eden.infohwy.com
Mon, 24 Sep 2001 17:01:32 -0500
The problem in fighting a "war" like our latest one, is that this time
we are not playing the game by our by our own rules at all.
We are instead fighting this war by the rules of Arab opinion, because
they have the obvious long run ability to control the oil we need, and
without much trouble. It looks like even the ruling Saudis may be
getting nervous (see way below). (Oil is paradoxically sinking sharply
in price at this moment because of a world economic slump, combined with
an acute sensitivity of oil price to its supply and demand).
According to an AP story this morning, part of the rules by which we
must now fight terrorism need to be that we do not bee seen to attack
Islamic Jehad, Hezzbolah, or Hamas in the process of dealing with
Osama's group. Otherwise we will polarize the Arab world against us. And
if we do take out Osama and his network, we need to do it without lots
of killing of innocents, and with enough evidence to convince average
Muslim that our war is just and limited in goals.
I tend to agree with the Arab world on these ground rules of an
appropriate response to the terror attacks, but its not mine but Arab
opinion around the world that really counts.
Its just that the rules of war as determined by this troublesome Arab
opinion are, I think, not exactly what the Bush administration has in
mind. It seems to me they prefer a war against the Teliban with lots of
bombs involved; something not likely to win the hearts and minds of the
Arabs.
Of course, you can always hope that Arab opinion will not
polarize against the US, as some reports like the AP story suggest
is the real risk. -- Roger
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http://www.indymedia.org/front.php3?article_id=66657&group=webcast
SERIOUS AND CONFUSING DEVELOPMENTS IN ISRAEL, EGYPT, SAUDI - KEY U.S. ALLIES
(english)
by Middle East Realities (MER) 11:14pm Sun Sep 23 '01
There is a strange and growing tension coming from the Middle East this
weekend; and we don't mean from Afghanistan and Pakistan this time,
rather we mean from America's closest allies, Israel, Egypt and Saudi
Arabia. We're in no position to know for sure just what is happening.
But in each of these countries very unusual and potentially historic
developments are unfolding.
In Israel today Shimon Peres essentially boycotted the Sunday Cabinet
meeting after being ordered at the last minute by Ariel Sharon not to
meet with Yasser Arafat. At the same time Sharon made harsh statements
condemning Arafat once again as an arch unrepentent terrorist, and the
Israelis essentially put out an arrest warrant for the head of the
Arafat's Fatah "Tanzim" forces, Marwan Barghouti. Yet at the same time
Sharon also has mentioned in public a possible "Palestinian State",
possibly dangling this in front of Arafat under pressures from
the Americans, wondering if Arafat might just grab onto anything at this
point to keep him and his entourage alive.In this overall context Peres
had the following to say today and there are rumors he might resign
tomorrow if hedoesn't get his way, meet with Arafat, and offer him a way
out with a rump disjointed "Palestinian State" that ofcourse would not
be really a State but which the Americans could and would use for their
own purposes of the
moment:
"When other countries and the peace of the
world
were in danger, the US stood by their side.
And
now, when the US is in danger, there is a
need to
stand together with it. In the 53 years of
Israel's
existence, there was not one request we made
to
the US that was not answered, and now the US
is asking Israel to hold meetings with the
Palestinians to quiet down criticism in the
Muslim
and Arab world... Tthe US is not requesting
that
Israel make territorial concessions or give
up on
its right of self-defense, but rather an
Israeli
contribution to changing the atmosphere
before [the US] sends its sons to battle."
Shimon Peres
Israeli Foreign Minister
In Egypt the long-time American-sponsored most-of-the-time puppet
leader, Hosni Mubarak, longed joked about by his own people as "the
Laughing Cow", has said more than once now that Egypt is not going to
join the American "coalition" to "save the world from terrorism" -- even
though the Americans keep saying "you are either with or us against us."
Over the weekend Mubarak is quoted as publicly warning the Americans as
follows:
"If you launch an attack against Afghanistan
or another
country on your list of rogue states, you
will kill many
innocent people, just as the terrorists
killed many of your
people. Don't play the game of your enemy.
They want
your reprisals to bring forth, from the blood
and ruins
of your bombing, a new generation of
militants who
will cry for revenge against the United
States."
Hosni Mubarak
President of Egypt
As for what is really going on in Saudi Arabia, that's even more
difficult to fathom right now, but the sketchy and not very clear
reports of a possible Palace Coup, with Crown Prince Abdullah and the
more nationalist and religious circles taking charge and essentially
sending King Fahd into de facto exile using the excuse that he is went
to Europe because he needs to be sure of the best medical care...
Well...who knows just what to believe at this point, though it is known
that an international team of some 2 dozen doctors has been in Riyahd
for some time now keeping Fahd alive and every conceiveable treatment
and facility is available for the King in Riyadh. On Saturday the
Washington Post did go with a careful front page story saying the Saudis
has indeed refused to allow the US to use the newly completed
best-in-the-region military Command Center to direct the new war.
Normally we would be very circumspect regarding the following reports
which may be originating from Israeli intelligence circles and may or
may not have validity. But under the urgent current circumstances and in
view of other surprising developments taking place we'll pass on these
reports with all the above caveats and then keep an eye on things:
U.S. BEREFT OF ARAB COALITION AFTER
SAUDI ARABIA BACKS OUT
The United States has delayed the start
of its offensive against Afghanistan and
Osama Bin Laden, in retaliation for the
terrorist strikes in New York and
Washington, because of a dramatic
turnaround of Arab support in the Middle
East.
Saturday afternoon, it became clear that
events in
Riyadh had dealt the final deathblow to the
US
Secretary of State, Colin Powellís failed
efforts to
create an Arab front to bolster the Bush
administrationís world war on terror.
The reason for King Fahd secret exit from
Saudi
Arabia, followed by a large royal party, is
believed by our most reliable sources to be a
palace revolution sparked by differences in
the
royal family over support for the US
offensive
against Afghanistan, Osama Bin Ladenís terror
network and other rogue targets. King Fahd
and
his Sudeiri faction, including defense
minister
Sultan, were in favor of letting the US place
assault
forces in forward bases on Saudi soil; the
conservative, religious Crown Prince
Abdullah,
who runs the kingdom since King Fahd became
ill,
overruled him, backed by the religious
establishment.
As a result, Saudi Arabia refused to let the
US use
the kingdomís new combined air operations
command center at Prince Sultan Air Base near
Riyadh, after Air Force Lt. Gen Charles Wald
had
been dispatched to the base earlier this
week, to
take command of US air forces assigned to the
Middle East and Southwest Asia.
His mission was to run the air war from the
new,
sophisticated air base opened this summer, a
base
linked to Al Dhafra in the United Arab
Emirates
and Seeb in the Sultanate of Oman. The Saudi
base
was also to have been the central command
post
not only for the 175 aircraft already based
in the
region for patrolling south Iraqís no-flight
zone,
but also for directing attacks from other
bases in
the region in the new war offensive.
When General Wald landed in Saudi Arabia with
his top aides on Tuesday, September 18, he
was
told he had no command base. That was when
the
feuding inside the royal house over its role
in the
American war against terrorism reached its
climax.
The monarchís defeat in the argument inside
the
palace was apparently the main reason for his
abrupt departure the next day, Wednesday,
September 19.
The Pentagon has since then been casting
about
for replacement bases of operation and
holding up
the onset of the scheduled US campaign.
Military
sources believe that one of General Waldís
options
for his command post is the Bahrain. Some of
the
fighter craft due to have been based in Saudi
Arabia have been moved to
Incerlik, the big air base in South Turkey,
after
Anakara made all its bases available for the
American war effort, and the Uzbek military
airport
of Tuzel, 15 km. from Tashkent. Large-scale
air and
commando forces also landed Saturday in
Tadjikistan, on the border of Afghanistan.
The American forces are now laboring to catch
up
with their schedule for the operation.
The upset in Riydah also sent the Palestinian
leader Yasser Arafat racing to Riydah to meet
Crown Prince Abdullah and update his own
strategy with the turn of events in the royal
house.
Palestinian experts expect Arafat to turn
tail and
back out of the accommodations he
broached under US and European pressure ñ
including his commitment to a ceasefire.
According to Washington sources,
the Bush administration realizes it has been
let
down by the Arab world, chiefly the Saudis
and
President Mubarak of Egypt, in its first
steps
to launch an international campaign to defeat
world
terrorism. It will go ahead, but not
forget in a hurry.
_____________________________________
SAUDIS IN FLIGHT
King Fahd Bin Abdulaziz of Saudi
Arabia has been secretly flown out of the
kingdom
to his palace in Geneva, Switzerland. The
royal
mobile hospital fitted aboard Boeing 757
HZ-HMED
landed in the private VIP section of Geneva
airport
ednesday afternoon, September 19. A palace
conclave led by Crown Prince Abdullah, who
effectively rules the kingdom, decided to
remove
the chronically ailing monarch to safety,
fearing he
might be stranded in the middle of a military
crisis
arising from the impending US offensive in
the region.
The royal hospital plane was accompanied by
another craft of the royal flight carrying
the kingís
family and entourage.
The possibility of a major terrorist attack
on the
royal palaces being sparked by the outbreak
of
hostilities was also taken into account in
Riyadh. A
group of princes was therefore carried to a
safe
place in the additional fleet of 10 royal
aircraft that
ferried members of the Saudi royal family to
Geneva. More than a dozen Mercedes waited on
the tarmac of Geneva International Airport to
collect the royal arrivals.
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